Liquidity risk and maturity management over the credit cycle

We show that firm demand-side factors are strong drivers of procyclical refinancing behavior over the credit cycle using novel data from the Shared National Credit program. Firms are more likely to refinance early when credit conditions are good to keep the effective maturity of their loans long and hedge against having to refinance in tight credit conditions. High credit quality firms are better able to hedge, making their refinancing propensity more sensitive to credit cycles than less creditworthy firms. There is a strong relationship between refinancing a loan, and subsequent growth in capital expenditure, especially when a loan is refinanced early.     

国家审计与国家监察服务腐败治理的路径探索——基于协同视角的思考

随着国家监察体制改革的全面推进，国家监督系统焕发新的生机。国家审计与国家监察作为国家监督系统的重要组成部分，理应充分发挥监督职能以保证国家可持续发展。从国家监察体制改革特点入手，基于受托经济责任观，全面分析国家审计及国家监察分别与腐败治理的相关关系，并以腐败治理为核心，从战略层面、管理层面和结果层面三个层面探求国家审计与国家监察的耦合路径，使两者通过有效耦合路径将监督协同效应发挥到极致，进而保证政府公共受托经济责任全面有效地履行。     

The innovative bureaucrat: evidence from the correctional authorities in Washington State

Bureaucracies are usually regarded as inefficient, wasteful mechanisms. Contrary to this deeply rooted perception of bureaucracy, this paper documents the case of the correctional authorities in Washington State, a bureaucracy that acted with a considerable degree of innovation and professionalism. Their task was to administer a risk assessment instrument that measured the level of risk posed by offenders by way of a numerical score. They used that score to identify the level of supervision offenders were to receive once released into the community. In analyzing the data, I discovered an unusual application of the instrument that resulted in many offenders being bumped to a higher supervision level. Using a regression discontinuity design, I uncover the mechanics of the bumping-up process and I generate an instrument that is cleansed of the manipulation. I find that the manipulated instrument predicts serious recidivism events better than the cleansed instrument, especially when these events involve high-risk offenders, thus providing evidence that the authorities had good reason to undertake the manipulation.     

Modelling the iron ore price index: A new perspective from a hybrid data reconstructed EEMD-GORU model

As iron ore is the fundamental steel production resource, predicting its price is strategically important for risk management at related enterprises and projects. Based on a signal decomposition technology and an artificial neural network, this paper proposes a hybrid EEMD-GORU model and a novel data reconstruction method to explore the price risk and fluctuation correlations between China’s iron ore futures and spot markets, and to forecast the price index series of China’s and international iron ore spot markets from the futures market. The analysis found that the iron ore futures market in China better reflected the price fluctuations and risk factors in the imported and international iron ore spot markets. However, the forward price in China’s iron ore futures market was unable to adequately reflect the changes in the domestic iron ore market, and was therefore unable to fully disseminate domestic iron ore market information. The proposed model was found to provide better market risk perceptions and predictions through its combinations of the different volatility information in futures and spot markets. The results are valuable references for the early-warning and management of the related enterprise project risks.     

Financial risk attitudes and aging in Australia

A number of empirical studies document that people tend to become more risk averse as they get older. But other studies find only little evidence that age matters for financial risk attitudes. This prompts a call for revisiting the relationship between age and risk attitude to better support policy recommendations. The current paper contributes to this effort by utilising large-scale population data to conduct a dynamic panel analysis. Care is taken to avoid the problem of endogeneity of lagged risk attitude in modelling its effects. Analysis reveals that individuals' past risk attitude has a positive effect on their current risk attitude. However, there is only little evidence that risk attitude and age are systematically related. Our results shed some light on the previous contradictory empirical findings in the literature and suggest that past risk attitude is potentially of greater relevance than chronological age in determining current risk attitude.     

On the Relationship between Audit Tenure and Fees Paid to the Audit Firm and Audit Quality

Abstract

We investigate the impact of audit firm tenure, partner tenure, audit fees, fees for non-audit services and total fees on audit quality, as measured by discretionary accruals. Our sample consists of Spanish non-financial public companies for the years between 2006 and 2013. Results indicate that audit quality increases with audit firm tenure but decreases with partner tenure. Moreover, the level of fees paid to the audit firm seems to have a negative impact on audit quality, which is mainly driven by fees for audit services. In this regard, we do not observe any significant relationship between fees for non-audit services and audit quality. Our results also show that the negative relationship between either long partner tenures or high fees and audit quality does not occur when the tenure with the audit firm is long. Therefore, long audit firm tenures do not only seem to involve higher audit quality ‘per se’, but also moderate the negative effects of partner tenure and audit fees on audit quality. The results of this study, which are robust to several sensitivity checks, may be relevant for the current debate on auditor rotation and the joint provision of audit and non-audit services.     

国家审计能促进国有企业全要素生产率增长吗?

如何促进国有企业治理改善，实现高质量发展，是当前国有企业审计亟须解决的问题。基于2010—2018年审计署公布的中央企业财务收支审计结果公告，采用双重差分模型实证检验国家审计对中央企业控股上市公司全要素生产率的影响及其作用机理。研究发现，国家审计能提高中央企业控股上市公司全要素生产率，主要体现在被审计当年及之后两年，通过扩大国家审计监督内容覆盖广度、拓展国家审计目标深度和加强国家审计权限行使力度实现。进一步发现，国家审计能通过促进中央企业控股上市公司增加研发投入、提高内部控制质量、抑制高管超额在职消费、缓解第一类代理问题等改善公司治理水平，提高全要素生产率。这对优化国有企业审计治理机制，提高全要素生产率，助推经济高质量发展具有启示意义。     

信息技术与国家审计质量——基于违规金额和地区生产总值的视角

基于信息技术在审计领域的不断应用和“科技强审”“审计全覆盖”的政策驱动背景，探讨信息技术和国家审计质量之间的关系。研究发现，社会信息化环境提高给国家审计质量带来了负面影响，而国家审计机关选择加大信息化投入，开展信息化建设、组织审计人员参加信息技术培训的应对策略，能显著改善社会信息化环境对审计质量带来的冲击，提高国家审计质量。当前信息技术已进入大数据时代，研究结论对国家审计机关持续开展信息化建设和加强信息技术培训提供启示；审计人员更应该提高信息化审计分析技能，提升审计效率，保证审计质量，使得信息技术更好地为国家审计工作服务。     

审计师行业专长对审计重要性水平的影响——基于股权性质的调节作用研究

审计师行业专长意味着在特定领域较强的专业胜任能力,对于防范审计风险和提高审计质量都有显著影响。围绕审计师行业专长影响审计重要性水平这一主题，结合股权性质的调节作用，选取2016—2018年沪深两市A股上市公司作为研究对象，进行实证检验。结果表明，审计师行业专长对重要性水平有正向影响，如果被审计单位是国有控股上市公司，审计师行业专长与重要性水平的正相关关系更显著。这对审计机构人力资源配置、监管部门完善相关制度及监督工作具有参考价值。